 |
| Titel |
Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle |
| VerfasserIn |
L. R. Boysen, V. Brovkin, V. K. Arora, P. Cadule, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, E. Kato, J. Pongratz, V. Gayler |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
2190-4979
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 5, no. 2 ; Nr. 5, no. 2 (2014-09-30), S.309-319 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115367
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-5-309-2014.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use
and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and
regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the
21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are
analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and
without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the
Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID)
project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric
CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm
in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically
significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in
three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between
0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by
three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude
(between −0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by
LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to
increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due
to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by
MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On
the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads
to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost
negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in
models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in
implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are
simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific
processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for
implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding
of model responses and the statistical significance of results,
especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|