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| Titel |
Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, S. Pascale, J. Böhner |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 5, no. 1 ; Nr. 5, no. 1 (2014-02-04), S.67-87 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115295
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-5-67-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models
(GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four
major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and
Mekong). First, we examine the skill of the GCMs by analysing their
performance in simulating the 20th century climate (1961–2000 period) using
historical forcing (20c3m experiment), and then we analyse the projected
changes for the corresponding 21st and 22nd century climates under the
SRESA1B scenario. The CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in
simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes
of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of
the hydrological cycle over the Indus Basin is poor in most cases, with a few
GCMs not capturing the monsoonal signal at all. While the model outputs
feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitation, a satisfactory
representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead
observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for
the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while their spread is
large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For the future climate
scenarios, most models foresee a decrease in the winter P − E over all four
basins, while agreement is found on the decrease of the spring P − E over the Indus and Ganges basins only. Such decreases in P − E are mainly due to the
decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude
disturbances. Consequently, for the Indus and Ganges basins, the runoff
drops during the spring season while it rises during the winter season. Such
changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial
runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus Basin. Furthermore, the rise in
the projected runoff, along with the increase in precipitation during summer
and autumn, indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all
study basins. |
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