 |
| Titel |
Indirect downscaling of hourly precipitation based on atmospheric circulation and temperature |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Beck, A. Bárdossy |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 12 ; Nr. 17, no. 12 (2013-12-05), S.4851-4863 |
| Datensatznummer |
250086017
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-4851-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The main source of information on future climate conditions are global
circulation models (GCMs).
While the various GCMs agree on an increase of surface temperature, the
predictions for precipitation exhibit high spread among the models, especially
in shorter-than-daily temporal resolution. This paper presents a method to predict
regional distributions of the hourly rainfall depth based on daily mean sea
level pressure and temperature data. It is an indirect downscaling method
avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the GCM. It is based on a fuzzy logic classification of atmospheric
circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average
daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to
each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of
the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the
CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th-century run and the
scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. For the study region in southwestern Germany ECHAM5
predicts that the summers will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the
frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According
to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly
precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.
However, the results are yet to be confirmed by further \mbox{investigation} based
on other GCMs. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|