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| Titel |
Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers |
| VerfasserIn |
A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, M. F. P. Bierkens |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 9 ; Nr. 17, no. 9 (2013-09-30), S.3661-3677 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085938
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3661-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the
Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability
in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the
future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of
uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in
the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate
change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for
comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With
these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and
estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier
size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation.
This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation
in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not
allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue.
Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the
CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as
precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in
projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both
ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during
periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change
are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the
model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the
same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about
the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of
future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability
uncertain. |
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