 |
| Titel |
Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Lopez, F. Francés |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-12), S.3189-3203 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085909
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3189-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent evidences of the impact of persistent modes of
regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human
activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the
hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, a framework for flood frequency
analysis is developed on the basis of a tool that enables us to address the
modelling of non-stationary time series, namely, the "generalized additive
models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS). Two approaches to
non-stationary modelling in GAMLSS were applied to the annual maximum flood
records of 20 continental Spanish rivers. The results of the first approach,
in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a
function of time only, show the presence of clear non-stationarities in the
flood regime. In a second approach, the parameters of the flood
distributions are modelled as functions of climate indices (Arctic
Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation and the
Western Mediterranean Oscillation) and a reservoir index that is proposed in
this paper. The results when incorporating external covariates in the study
highlight the important role of interannual variability in low-frequency
climate forcings when modelling the flood regime in continental Spanish
rivers. Also, with this approach it is possible to properly introduce the
impact on the flood regime of intensified reservoir regulation strategies.
The inclusion of external covariates permits the use of these models as
predictive tools. Finally, the application of non-stationary analysis shows
that the differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their
stationary equivalents may be important over long periods of time. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|