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| Titel |
Projected effect of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Jiang, H. Liao, H. O. T. Pye, S. Wu, L. J. Mickley, J. H. Seinfeld, X. Y. Zhang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 16 ; Nr. 13, no. 16 (2013-08-16), S.7937-7960 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085632
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-7937-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in
China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the
chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected
by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through
sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black
carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, concentrations of individual
aerosol species change by −1.5 to +0.8 μg m−3, and PM2.5
levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a
result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in
anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are
simulated to decrease because of assumed reductions in emissions, and those
of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions
combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a predicted reduction
of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 1–8 μg m−3
(or 10–40%) over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission
inventories for BC and OC over China are judged to be inadequate at present.
Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different
sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow
of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to
change by −7.0%, −0.7%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate
change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and
emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from
Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 in
response to projected changes in emissions, leading to a 10.5% increase
in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both
emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in
spring contribute a large fraction of the annual inflow of PM2.5. The
annual inflow of PM2.5 from South Asia and Southeast Asia to China is
estimated to change by −8%, +281%, and +227% over 2000–2050
owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in
both climate and emissions, respectively. While the 4° × 5° spatial resolution is a limitation of the present study, the
direction of predicted changes in aerosol levels and transboundary fluxes
still provides valuable insight into future air quality. |
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