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| Titel |
Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Tramblay, Salaheddine El Adlouni, E. Servat |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 12 ; Nr. 13, no. 12 (2013-12-13), S.3235-3248 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085582
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-3235-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such
as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation.
While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation
records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional
assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations
located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily
precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are
analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the
precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is
addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The
spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the
different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric
circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western
Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a
decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in
the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the
other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation
indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation
indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the
length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a
strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. |
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