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| Titel |
Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Campins, B. Navascúes, C. Santos, A. Amo-Baladrón |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 11 ; Nr. 13, no. 11 (2013-11-19), S.2891-2910 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085558
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2891-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The influence of targeted observations on short-range forecasts is tested
over two different periods of PREVIEW (2008) and MEDEX (2009) data targeting
field campaigns for a set of Mediterranean high-impact weather events. As
targeted observations we have used not only extra radiosondes, but also
enhanced satellite data observed in singular vector (SV)-based sensitive
regions. Three parallel observing system experiments, based on the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) data assimilation and forecast
system, have been conducted. Forecasts of the three experiments have been
assessed using both verifying analyses for upper-air fields, and surface
observations for several meteorological parameters. Furthermore,
quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) have been objectively verified
using the novel feature oriented Structure–Amplitude–Location (SAL) method.
The results obtained show that extra radiosondes have an overall positive
impact on the forecasts (average improvement of all upper-air variables and
vertical levels studied is 3.6%). When in addition to extra radiosonde
data also enhanced satellite data are assimilated, the overall forecast
skill is almost doubled. However, a distinct behaviour is found between the
PREVIEW and MEDEX cases. While for MEDEX cases the improvement is slight,
for PREVIEW cases the improvement is significant (average improvements of 1.7% and
8.9%, respectively, for the experiment with enhanced satellite data). It is
suggested that this is due to the location of the target areas and the
spatial distribution of the composite observing system and to the different
atmospheric predictability in these two periods. |
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