 |
| Titel |
Proportional loss functions for debris flow events |
| VerfasserIn |
C. M. Rheinberger, H. E. Romang, M. Bründl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 8 ; Nr. 13, no. 8 (2013-08-30), S.2147-2156 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085505
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2147-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological
hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do
so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a
uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five
large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear
model, we estimate proportional loss functions that may be used for various
prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and
insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding
effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities
as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process
intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss
sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction
errors of our models are in the range of 11%, underpinning the
accurateness of the approach. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|