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| Titel |
The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for the Rhine delta |
| VerfasserIn |
S. F. Kew, F. M. Selten, G. Lenderink, W. Hazeleger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 8 ; Nr. 13, no. 8 (2013-08-13), S.2017-2029 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085496
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2017-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The low-lying Netherlands is at risk from multiple threats of sea level rise,
storm surges and extreme river discharges. Should these occur simultaneously,
a catastrophe will be at hand. Knowledge about the likelihood of simultaneous
occurrence or the so-called "compound effect" of such threats is essential
to provide guidance on legislation for dike heights, flood barrier design and
water management in general.
In this study, we explore the simultaneous threats of North Sea storm surges
and extreme Rhine river discharge for the current and future climate in a
large 17-member global climate model ensemble. We use a simple approach,
taking proxies of north-northwesterly winds over the North Sea and
multiple~day precipitation averaged over the Rhine basin for storm surge and
discharge respectively, so that a sensitivity analysis is straightforward to
apply. By investigating soft extremes, we circumvent the need to extrapolate
the data and thereby permit the model's synoptic development of the extreme
events to be inspected.
Our principle finding based on the climate model data is that, for the
current climate, the probability of extreme surge conditions following
extreme 20-day precipitation sums is around 3 times higher than that
estimated from treating extreme surge and discharge probabilities as
independent, as previously assumed. For the future climate (2070–2100), the
assumption of independence cannot be rejected, at least not for precipitation
sums exceeding 7 days. |
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