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| Titel |
Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Bopp, L. Resplandy, J. C. Orr, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, M. Gehlen, P. Halloran, C. Heinze, T. Ilyina, R. Séférian, J. Tjiputra, M. Vichi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 10, no. 10 ; Nr. 10, no. 10 (2013-10-02), S.6225-6245 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085347
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-10-6225-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their
physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming,
acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine
phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean
ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these
changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed
in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how
these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth
system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming,
acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the
IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century.
For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the
2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH,
global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73
(±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45
(±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high
mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71
(±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81
(±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the
effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors
operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not
change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in
global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in
primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic.
Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same
does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the
tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These
high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface
oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these
model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to
force regional impact models. |
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