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| Titel |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
| VerfasserIn |
S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, M. Zemp |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 7, no. 5 ; Nr. 7, no. 5 (2013-10-02), S.1565-1577 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085168
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate.
To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass
and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and
geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global
assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on
accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze
the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144
GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther
from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global
undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional
losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their
volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These
losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total
glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large
uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are
needed in poorly sampled regions. |
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