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| Titel |
A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Heinke, S. Ostberg, S. Schaphoff, K. Frieler, C. Müller, D. Gerten, M. Meinshausen, W. Lucht |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 6, no. 5 ; Nr. 6, no. 5 (2013-10-16), S.1689-1703 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085001
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-6-1689-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature
change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which
mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation
requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along
these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of
ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate
change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of
temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly
composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the
specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a
function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied
to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature,
precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation
Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with
scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the
reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering
warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the
year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original
AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a
simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in
local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final
publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change
impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change
scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations. |
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