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| Titel |
A method to represent ozone response to large changes in precursor emissions using high-order sensitivity analysis in photochemical models |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Yarwood, C. Emery, J. Jung, U. Nopmongcol, T. Sakulyanontvittaya |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 6, no. 5 ; Nr. 6, no. 5 (2013-09-25), S.1601-1608 |
| Datensatznummer |
250084995
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-6-1601-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Photochemical grid models (PGMs) are used to simulate tropospheric ozone and
quantify its response to emission changes. PGMs are often applied for annual
simulations to provide both maximum concentrations for assessing compliance
with air quality standards and frequency distributions for assessing human
exposure. Efficient methods for computing ozone at different emission levels
can improve the quality of ozone air quality management efforts. This study
demonstrates the feasibility of using the decoupled direct method (DDM) to
calculate first- and second-order sensitivity of ozone to anthropogenic NOx
and VOC emissions in annual PGM simulations at continental scale. Algebraic
models are developed that use Taylor series to produce complete annual
frequency distributions of hourly ozone at any location and any
anthropogenic emission level between zero and 100%, adjusted
independently for NOx and VOC. We recommend computing the sensitivity
coefficients at the midpoint of the emissions range over which they are
intended to be applied, in this case with 50% anthropogenic emissions.
The algebraic model predictions can be improved by combining sensitivity
coefficients computed at 10 and 50% anthropogenic emissions. Compared
to brute force simulations, algebraic model predictions tend to be more
accurate in summer than winter, at rural than urban locations, and with
100% than zero anthropogenic emissions. Equations developed to combine
sensitivity coefficients computed with 10 and 50% anthropogenic
emissions are able to reproduce brute force simulation results with zero and
100% anthropogenic emissions with a mean bias of less than 2 ppb and mean
error of less than 3 ppb averaged over 22 US cities. |
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