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| Titel |
Can bioenergy cropping compensate high carbon emissions from large-scale deforestation of high latitudes? |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, W. Cramer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2013-11-18), S.409-424 |
| Datensatznummer |
250084960
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-4-409-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of the high latitudes
result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo
of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and
biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance, however, may
be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response, as carbon
emissions are typically at or below the lower end of estimates. Here, we use
the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL for a better estimate of the
carbon cycle under such large-scale deforestation. These studies are purely
theoretical in order to understand the role of vegetation in the energy balance and the
earth system. They must not be mistaken as possible mitigation options,
because of the devastating effects on pristine ecosystems. For realistic
assumptions of land suitability, the total emissions computed in this study
are higher than that of previous studies assessing the effects of boreal
deforestation. The warming due to biogeochemical effects ranges from 0.12 to
0.32 °C, depending on the climate sensitivity. Using LPJmL to
assess the mitigation potential of bioenergy plantations in the suitable
areas of the deforested region, we find that the global biophysical
bioenergy potential is 68.1 ± 5.6 EJ yr−1 of primary energy at
the end of the 21st century in the most plausible scenario. The
avoided combustion of fossil fuels over the time frame of this experiment
would lead to further cooling. However, since the carbon debt caused
by the cumulative emissions is not repaid by the end of the 21st
century, the global temperatures would increase by 0.04 to 0.11 °C.
The carbon dynamics in the high latitudes especially with respect to
permafrost dynamics and long-term carbon losses, require additional
attention in the role for the Earth's carbon and energy budget. |
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