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| Titel |
Detection of global runoff changes: results from observations and CMIP5 experiments |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Alkama, L. Marchand, A. Ribes, B. Decharme |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 7 ; Nr. 17, no. 7 (2013-07-25), S.2967-2979 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018948
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2967-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper assesses the detectability of changes in global streamflow.
First, a statistical detection method is applied to observed (no missing
data which represent 42% of global discharge) and reconstructed (gaps are
filled in order to cover a larger area and about 60% of global discharge)
streamflow. Observations show no change over the 1958–1992 period. Further,
an extension to 2004 over the same catchment areas using reconstructed data
does not provide evidence of a significant change. Conversely, a significant
change is found in reconstructed streamflow when a larger area is
considered. These results suggest that changes in global streamflow are
still unclear. Moreover, changes in streamflow as simulated by models from
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the historic and
future RCP 8.5 scenarios are investigated. Most CMIP5 models are found to
simulate the climatological streamflow reasonably well, except for over South
America and Africa. Change becomes significant between 2016 and 2040 for all
but three models. |
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