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| Titel |
Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Aksoy, N. E. Unal, E. Eris, M. I. Yuce |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 6 ; Nr. 17, no. 6 (2013-06-25), S.2297-2303 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018906
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2297-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern
Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological
data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of
the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating
monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and
multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after
removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake
water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the
so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the
hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second
model (so-called multiple-trend), the time series is divided into a number
of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on
the lake water level data shows that four segments, each
fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used
for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the
hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake
water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model
is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in
surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the
simulated lake water level. |
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