 |
| Titel |
Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? |
| VerfasserIn |
M. H. Ramos, S. J. Andel, F. Pappenberger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 6 ; Nr. 17, no. 6 (2013-06-19), S.2219-2232 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018901
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2219-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic
hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This
followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty,
people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore,
research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on
ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers.
Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products
for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers
perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General
Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several
cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as
part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were
collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this
exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of
probabilistic forecasts. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|