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| Titel |
Montreal Protocol Benefits simulated with CCM SOCOL |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Egorova, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, M. Hauser, W. Schmutz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 7 ; Nr. 13, no. 7 (2013-04-10), S.3811-3823 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018581
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-3811-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ozone depletion is caused by the anthropogenic increase of halogen-containing
species in the atmosphere, which results in the enhancement of
the concentration of reactive chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. To
reduce the influence of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODS), the
Montreal Protocol was agreed by Governments in 1987, with several Amendments
and Adjustments adopted later. In order to assess the benefits of the
Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and Adjustments (MPA) on ozone and UV
radiation, two different runs of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL
have been carried out. The first run was driven by the emission of ozone
depleting substances (ODS) prescribed according to the restrictions of the
MPA. For the second run we allow the ODS to grow by 3% annually. We find
that the MPA would have saved up to 80% of the global annual total ozone
by the end of the 21st century. Our calculations also show substantial
changes of the stratospheric circulation pattern as well as in surface
temperature and precipitations that could occur in the world without MPA
implementations. To illustrate the changes in UV radiation at the surface
and to emphasise certain features, which can only be seen for some
particular regions if the influence of the cloud cover changes is accounted
for, we calculate geographical distribution of the erythemally weighted
irradiance (Eery). For the no Montreal Protocol simulation Eery
increases by factor of 4 to 16 between the 1970s and 2100. For the scenario
including the Montreal Protocol it is found that UV radiation starts to
decrease in 2000, with continuous decline of 5% to 10% at middle
latitudes in the both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. |
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