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| Titel |
Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, A. J. Weaver |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2013-03-08), S.2793-2825 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018484
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-2793-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an
emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the
Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential
(GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and
to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model
intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify
responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under
different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in
the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C
emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm,
25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean
has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%).
The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by
0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until
year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content
and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global
Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year
100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence)
lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per
kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in
the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best
estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated
CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial
conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than
larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean
heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse
size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most
important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the
time horizon. |
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