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| Titel |
High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Mel, A. Sterl, P. Lionello |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 4 ; Nr. 13, no. 4 (2013-04-30), S.1135-1142 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018421
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-1135-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the
safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario
is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data
recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational
seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long
simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the
2094–2098 to the 2004–2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface
wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE)
which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results
show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic
values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they
show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However,
some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of
high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a
decreased number of moderate windstorms. |
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