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| Titel |
Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Idier, J. Rohmer, T. Bulteau, E. Delvallée |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 4 ; Nr. 13, no. 4 (2013-04-18), S.999-1013 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018411
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-999-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent flooding events, like Katrina (USA, 2005) or Xynthia (France, 2010),
illustrate the complexity of coastal systems and the limits of traditional
flood risk analysis. Among other questions, these events raised issues such
as: "how to choose flooding scenarios for risk management purposes?", "how
to make a society more aware and prepared for such events?" and "which
level of risk is acceptable to a population?". The present paper aims at
developing an inverse approach that could seek to address these three issues.
The main idea of the proposed method is the inversion of the usual risk
assessment steps: starting from the maximum acceptable hazard level (defined
by stakeholders as the one leading to the maximum tolerable consequences) to
finally obtain the return period of this threshold. Such an "inverse"
approach would allow for the identification of all the offshore forcing
conditions (and their occurrence probability) inducing a threat for critical
assets of the territory, such information being of great importance for
coastal risk management. This paper presents the first stage in developing
such a procedure. It focuses on estimation (through inversion of the flooding
model) of the offshore conditions leading to the acceptable hazard level,
estimation of the return period of the associated combinations, and thus of
the maximum acceptable hazard level. A first application for a simplified
case study (based on real data), located on the French Mediterranean coast,
is presented, assuming a maximum acceptable hazard level. Even if only one
part of the full inverse method has been developed, we demonstrate how the
inverse method can be useful in (1) estimating
the probability of exceeding the maximum inundation height for
identified critical assets, (2) providing critical offshore conditions for
flooding in early warning systems, and (3) raising awareness of stakeholders
and eventually enhance preparedness for future flooding events by allowing
them to assess risk to their territory. The next challenge is to
develop a framework to properly identify the acceptable hazard level, as an
input to the present inverse approach. |
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