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| Titel |
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Vanem, O. N. Breivik |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 3 ; Nr. 13, no. 3 (2013-03-04), S.545-557 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018378
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-545-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship
operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime
accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in
ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous
operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the
statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic
climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is
less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are
large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme
weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can
describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the
environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models
have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence
structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were
found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in
particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this
paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial
and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North
Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North
Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height
over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing
trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant
long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the
increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally
generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also
consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main
storm tracks. |
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