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| Titel |
The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Henson, H. Cole, C. Beaulieu, A. Yool |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6 (2013-06-28), S.4357-4369 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018317
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-10-4357-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology) of oceanic primary production (PP) is
expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6
global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal
amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We
also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly
detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP
decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with
the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per
year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by
~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly
pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal
amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than
the minima) and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth
and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of
currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming) regions, typically found at high
latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom) regions, characteristic of
contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to
detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP,
compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is
found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that
analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to
detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity. |
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