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| Titel |
Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width |
| VerfasserIn |
S. E. Tolwinski-Ward, K. J. Anchukaitis, M. N. Evans |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2013-07-15), S.1481-1493 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018087
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-1481-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present a Bayesian model for estimating the parameters of the VS-Lite
forward model of tree-ring width for a particular chronology and its local
climatology. The scheme also provides information about the uncertainty of
the parameter estimates, as well as the model error in representing the
observed proxy time series. By inferring VS-Lite's parameters independently
for synthetically generated ring-width series at several hundred sites across
the United States, we show that the algorithm is skillful. We also infer
optimal parameter values for modeling observed ring-width data at the same
network of sites. The estimated parameter values covary in physical space,
and their locations in multidimensional parameter space provide insight into
the dominant climatic controls on modeled tree-ring growth at each site as
well as the stability of those controls. The estimation procedure is useful
for forward and inverse modeling studies using VS-Lite to quantify the full
range of model uncertainty stemming from its parameterization. |
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