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| Titel |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
| VerfasserIn |
H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, C. O. Weiss |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2013-02-22), S.447-452 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017996
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-447-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means
reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six
show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the
20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores
show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a
global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records
for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and
the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a
stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic
decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant
frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation
between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and
the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r =
0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level
confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate
dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find
indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic
dynamics. |
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