 |
| Titel |
Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model |
| VerfasserIn |
A. E. West, A. B. Keen, H. T. Hewitt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1994-0416
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 7, no. 2 ; Nr. 7, no. 2 (2013-03-26), S.555-567 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017950
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-7-555-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate
simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4
multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice
decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and
anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant
slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations
even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the
Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by
which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export
is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux
in the relevant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in
some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes
other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the
likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|