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| Titel |
Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Hasson, V. Lucarini, S. Pascale |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2013-07-30), S.199-217 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017786
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-4-199-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We investigate how the climate models contributing to
the PCMDI/CMIP3 dataset describe the hydrological cycle over four major South
and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for
the 20th, 21st (13 models) and 22nd (10 models) centuries. For the 20th century,
some models do not seem to conserve water at the river basin scale up to a
good degree of approximation. The simulated precipitation minus evaporation
(P − E), total runoff (R) and precipitation (P) quantities are
neither consistent with the observations nor among the models themselves.
Most of the models underestimate P − E for all four river basins,
which is mainly associated with the underestimation of precipitation. This is
in agreement with the recent results on the biases of the representation of
monsoonal dynamics by GCMs. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement is found
only for the evaporation and inter-annual variability of P − E. For
the 21st and 22nd centuries, models agree on the negative (positive) changes
of P − E for the Indus basin (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins).
Most of the models foresee an increase in the inter-annual variability of
P − E for the Ganges and Mekong basins, thus suggesting an increase
in large low-frequency dry/wet events. Instead, no considerable future change
in the inter-annual variability of P − E is found for the Indus and
Brahmaputra basins. |
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