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| Titel |
Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China |
| VerfasserIn |
J. J. Lian, K. Xu, C. Ma |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 2 ; Nr. 17, no. 2 (2013-02-14), S.679-689 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017717
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-679-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable
conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The
combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes
should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims
to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the
receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which
has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation
intensities, with return periods (RPs) of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal
levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed
during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river
network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity
were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou
City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within
a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall
exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the
river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal
copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding
their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes
from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood.
Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in
Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during
design. |
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