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| Titel |
Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output |
| VerfasserIn |
D. E. Robertson, P. Pokhrel, Q. J. Wang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 2 ; Nr. 17, no. 2 (2013-02-08), S.579-593 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017710
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-579-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow
forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition
and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of
antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial
catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability
and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid
seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic
hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment
condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill
and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to
those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the
reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces
forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and
as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when
the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to
antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant
source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and
base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation
intermittently throughout the historical record. |
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