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| Titel |
An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources |
| VerfasserIn |
J. A. Velázquez, J. Schmid, S. Ricard, M. J. Muerth, B. Gauvin St-Denis, M. Minville, D. Chaumont, D. Caya, R. Ludwig, R. Turcotte |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 2 ; Nr. 17, no. 2 (2013-02-08), S.565-578 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017709
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-565-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of
climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The
projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of
uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the
QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on
Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological
models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of
structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed
models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with
natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one
in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different
hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven
by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000) and a future
(2041–2070) period. The results show that, for our hydrological model
ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response
of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows.
Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the
hydrological model. |
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