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| Titel |
How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe? |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Schneider, C. L. R. Laize, M. C. Acreman, M. Flörke |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 1 ; Nr. 17, no. 1 (2013-01-28), S.325-339 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017693
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-325-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts
and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures,
declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact
differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones,
unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk,
water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their
vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and
composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This
study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river
flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into
consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate
zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and
future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model
WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions
(2050s) are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty,
bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models
are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of
different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of
Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on
the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes
remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier
conditions with reduced precipitation across the year) and in the boreal
climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong
temperature rises). In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from
oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest
impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for
both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be predominantly
altered in the Mediterranean but also in the Northern climates. At the end
of this study, typical future flow regimes under climate change are
illustrated for each climate zone. |
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