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| Titel |
Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Peng, L. M. Zhang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 2 ; Nr. 13, no. 2 (2013-02-18), S.439-454 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017580
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-439-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan
earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the
dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197
thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated
10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important
decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency
management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified
with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic
information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The
probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching
parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no
soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3
when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing
downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the
population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs,
flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of
warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks.
Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to
evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these
three stages. |
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