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| Titel |
Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management – Part 1: Theoretical framework |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Peng, L. M. Zhang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 2 ; Nr. 13, no. 2 (2013-02-18), S.425-437 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017579
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-425-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late
decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early
evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based
framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management
(DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space
scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The
probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated
using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as
functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model
(HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to
decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the
decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing
the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and
flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making
can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case
study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of
this framework to complex dam-breaching problems. |
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