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| Titel |
Real-time flood forecasting coupling different postprocessing techniques of precipitation forecast ensembles with a distributed hydrological model. The case study of may 2008 flood in western Piemonte, Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Cane, S. Ghigo, D. Rabuffetti, M. Milelli |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 2 ; Nr. 13, no. 2 (2013-02-05), S.211-220 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017561
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-211-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this work, we compare the performance of an hydrological model when
driven by probabilistic rain forecast derived from two different
post-processing techniques. The region of interest is Piemonte,
northwestern Italy, a complex orography area close to the Mediterranean Sea
where the forecast are often a challenge for weather models. The May 2008
flood is here used as a case study, and the very dense weather station
network allows us for a very good description of the event and
initialization of the hydrological model. The ensemble probabilistic
forecasts of the rainfall fields are obtained with the Bayesian model
averaging, with the classical poor man ensemble approach and with a new
technique, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing. In this case study, the
meteo-hydrological chain initialized with the Multimodel SuperEnsemble
Dressing is able to provide more valuable discharge ranges with respect to
the one initialized with Bayesian model averaging multi-model. |
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