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| Titel |
Macroscopic anomalies before the September 2010 M = 7.1 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand |
| VerfasserIn |
N. E. Whitehead, U. Ulusoy |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 1 ; Nr. 13, no. 1 (2013-01-25), S.167-176 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017540
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-167-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Previous published work after the Kobe and İzmit earthquakes (1995 and 1999,
respectively) demonstrated some reported meteorological and animal behaviour
precursors were valid. Predictions were freshly tested for the Christchurch
earthquake (M = 7.1, 4 September 2010). An internet survey with nearly 400
valid replies showed relative numbers of reports in precursor categories the
day before the quake, were statistically significantly different from those
in the preceding three days (excess meteorological events and animal
behaviour). The day before the quake, there was also altered relative
precursor class occurrence within 56 km compared with further away. Both
these confirmed the earlier published work. Owners were woken up by unique
pet behaviour 12 times as often in the hour before the quake compared with
other hours immediately before (statistically highly significant). Lost and
Found pet reports were double normal the week before, and 4.5 times normal
both the day before the quake, and 9 days before. (Results were again
statistically significant). Unique animal behaviour before the quake was
often repeated before the numerous aftershocks. These pet owners claimed an
approximate 80% prediction reliability. However, a preliminary telephone
survey suggested that animals showing any precursor response are a minority.
Some precursors seem real, but usefulness seemed mostly restricted to 7 cases where owners were in, or near, a place of safety through disruptive
pet behaviour, and one in which owners were diverted by a pet from being
struck by falling fixtures. For a later 22 February 2011 M = 6.3 quake no reports of
escape through warning by pets were recorded, which raises serious questions
whether such prediction is practically useful, because lives claimed saved
are extremely low compared with fatalities. It is shown the lost-pet
statistics dates, correspond to ionospheric anomalies recorded using the GPS
satellite system and geomagnetic disturbance data, and claimed as
precursory. The latter more objective measurements may be the way of the
future, but improved statistical treatment should include observations over
longer periods of time without earthquakes. |
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