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| Titel |
The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan |
| VerfasserIn |
C.-S. Lee, L.-R. Huang, D. Y.-C. Chen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 1 ; Nr. 13, no. 1 (2013-01-18), S.65-74 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017531
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-65-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological
model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from
rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999).
Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and
northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track
classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also
evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006
and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases,
the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the
climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12) and northward-moving
(N-TRCM12) typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original
climatological model (TRCM06). Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the
precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show
that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and
distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied
northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12) for special typhoon types has also been
established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases
and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different
regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly
overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific
regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the
rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However,
it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster
prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more
important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute
significantly to operational forecast. |
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