|
Titel |
Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project |
VerfasserIn |
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, Z. Zhang |
Medientyp |
Artikel
|
Sprache |
Englisch
|
ISSN |
1814-9324
|
Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2013-01-25), S.191-209 |
Datensatznummer |
250017432
|
Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/cp-9-191-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
Zusammenfassung |
Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period
(3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models
have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their
predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model
Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a
coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst
commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show
substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of
Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional
changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However,
data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar
amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence,
limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be
addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling
Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential
(e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses).
Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System
Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than
Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between
1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5. |
|
|
Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|