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| Titel |
An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003 |
| VerfasserIn |
O. Wetter, C. Pfister |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2013-01-14), S.41-56 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017424
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-41-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be
unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD)
and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper
shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat
and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the
previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and
precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent
body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and
tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer
(AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C
being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed
for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax
of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which
caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full
grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of
many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as
would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by
further research whether and how far this result obtained from local
analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates
for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative
documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ
temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and
Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture
deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be
validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that
biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and
drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the
critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which
provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related
impacts on human, ecological and social systems. |
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