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| Titel |
The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Schellekens, A. H. Weerts, R. J. Moore, C. E. Pierce, S. Hildon |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-03-01), S.77-84 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016937
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-77-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Operational flood forecasting systems share a fundamental challenge:
forecast uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood
warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through
employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the
Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall forecasts are utilised and
tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall forecast used is
the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for
operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood Forecasting
System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic
forecasts only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region
is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall forecasts in
support of probabilistic flood forecasting. Evaluation includes considering
issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble
forecasts within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and
options for displaying probabilistic forecasts. Although ensemble rainfall
forecasts available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify
product performance, it is concluded that their use within current
Environment Agency regional flood forecasting systems can provide better
information to the forecaster than use of the deterministic forecasts alone.
Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance
generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also
forecasted rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the
MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is
concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in
existing systems without a significant increase in system load. |
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