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| Titel |
Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Alfieri, D. Velasco, J. Thielen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-03-01), S.69-75 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016936
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-69-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The deadly combination of short to no warning lead times and the
vulnerability of urbanized areas makes flash flood events extremely
dangerous for the modern society. This paper contributes to flash flood
early warning by proposing a multi-stage warning system for heavy
precipitation events based on threshold exceedances within a probabilistic
framework. It makes use of meteorological products at different resolutions,
namely, numerical weather predictions (NWP), radar-NWP blending, and radar
nowcasting. The system is composed by two main modules. First, a European
Precipitation Index based on a simulated Climatology (EPIC) and
probabilistic weather forecasts is calculated to pinpoint catchments at risk
of upcoming heavy precipitation. Then, a Probabilistic Flash Flood Guidance
System (PFFGS) is activated at the regional scale and uses more accurate
input data to reduce the estimation uncertainty.
The system is tested for a high flow event occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in
November 2008 and results from the different meteorological input data are
compared and discussed. The strength of coupling the two systems is shown in
its ability to detect areas potentially at risk of severe meteorological
conditions and then monitoring the evolution by providing more accurate
information with higher spatial-temporal resolution as the event approaches. |
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