 |
| Titel |
Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast |
| VerfasserIn |
H.-J. Bao, L.-N. Zhao, Y. He, Z.-J. Li, F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, D. Manful |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1680-7340
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-02-28), S.61-67 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016935
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-61-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood
forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a
few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is
insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and
lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble
numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand
Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The
Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the
Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell
extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble
weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP)
for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood
forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2)
located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as
the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the
Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an
early warning of flood events several days ahead. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|