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| Titel |
Can a multi-model approach improve hydrological ensemble forecasting? A study on 29 French catchments using 16 hydrological model structures |
| VerfasserIn |
J. A. Velázquez, F. Anctil, M. H. Ramos, C. Perrin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-02-28), S.33-42 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016932
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-33-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting system based on a
meteorological ensemble prediction system (M-EPS) coupled with a
hydrological model searches to capture the uncertainties associated with the
meteorological prediction to better predict river flows. However, the
structure of the hydrological model is also an important source of
uncertainty that has to be taken into account. This study aims at evaluating
and comparing the performance and the reliability of different types of
hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS), when ensemble weather
forecasts are combined with a multi-model approach. The study is based on 29
catchments in France and 16 lumped hydrological model structures, driven by
the weather forecasts from the European centre for medium-range weather
forecasts (ECMWF). Results show that the ensemble predictions produced by a
combination of several hydrological model structures and meteorological
ensembles have higher skill and reliability than ensemble predictions given
either by one single hydrological model fed by weather ensemble predictions
or by several hydrological models and a deterministic meteorological
forecast. |
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