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| Titel |
An empirical model to estimate ultraviolet erythemal transmissivity |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Antón, A. Serrano, M. L. Cancillo, J. A. García |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 27, no. 4 ; Nr. 27, no. 4 (2009-04-01), S.1387-1398 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016464
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-27-1387-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An empirical model to estimate the solar ultraviolet erythemal
irradiance (UVER) for all-weather conditions is presented. This
model proposes a power expression with the UV transmissivity as a
dependent variable, and the slant ozone column and the clearness
index as independent variables. The UVER were measured at three
stations in South-Western Spain during a five year period
(2001–2005). A dataset corresponding to the period 2001–2004 was
used to develop the model and an independent dataset (year 2005) for
validation purposes. For all three locations, the empirical model
explains more than 95% of UV transmissivity variability due to
changes in the two independent variables. In addition, the
coefficients of the models show that when the slant ozone amount
decreases 1%, UV transmissivity and, therefore, UVER values
increase approximately 1.33%–1.35%. The coefficients also show
that when the clearness index decreases 1%, UV transmissivity
increase 0.75%–0.78%. The validation of the model provided
satisfactory results, with low mean absolute bias error (MABE),
about 7%–8% for all stations. Finally, a one-day ahead forecast
of the UV Index for cloud-free cases is presented, assuming the
persistence in the total ozone column. The percentage of days with
differences between forecast and experimental UVI lower than
±0.5 unit and ±1 unit is within the range of 28% to 37%,
and 60% to 75%, respectively. Therefore, the empirical model
proposed in this work provides reliable forecast cloud-free UVI in
order to inform the public about the possible harmful effects of UV
radiation over-exposure. |
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