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| Titel |
Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000 |
| VerfasserIn |
J. W. Krzyścin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 21, no. 8 ; Nr. 21, no. 8, S.1887-1896 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014685
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-21-1887-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A new, powerful
statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is
applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk,
Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000.
Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky
covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk)
and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the
surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard
indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations,
and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results
there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed
year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields
better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on
the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling
interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible
nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the
atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS
enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on
the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages.
Key words. Atmospheric composition
and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions) |
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