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| Titel |
Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Wimmer, S. Schlaffer, T. Aus der Beek, L. Menzel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Transdisciplinary concepts and modelling strategies for the assessment of complex environmental systems ; Nr. 21 (2009-08-12), S.117-124 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014537
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-21-117-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in
Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections.
In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially
distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily
data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar
radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is
provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data
availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation
method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary
Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on
elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to
35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future
climate projections for 2071–2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B
emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were
analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases
by up to 17% (26...41 mm) while it remains at the same level for HadCM3
(24...34 mm). The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in
winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season
hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were
ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global
circulation models. |
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