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| Titel |
Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Menzel, J. Koch, J. Onigkeit, R. Schaldach |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Transdisciplinary concepts and modelling strategies for the assessment of complex environmental systems ; Nr. 21 (2009-08-12), S.73-80 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014531
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-21-73-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first-time overview of the current
and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern
Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km2) is given. First, we applied the
hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and
groundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial
resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the
study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the
semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the
future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach.
Relevant drivers for land-use/land-cover change were fed into the
LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different
scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate
scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region.
For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected
developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard
to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate
conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and
decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural
and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological
processes. |
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