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| Titel |
Relationship between forecast precipitation relative errors and skill scores: the case of rare event frequencies |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Tartaglione |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Observation, Prediction and Verification of Precipitation (EGU Session 2008) ; Nr. 20 (2009-03-12), S.19-23 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014330
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-20-19-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This paper addresses the problem of the relationship between skill scores
and forecast rainfall relative errors. The problem is approached by using
synthetic time series of rainfall data representing the observations. It is
assumed that the magnitude of the relative error is known. The forecasts are
constructed by adding errors to the observations. We use a threshold to
dichotomise forecasts and observations to obtain the skill scores. We
perform 1000 simulations for each error magnitude in order to obtain the
mean values and uncertainties of the scores.
We consider two different precipitation regimes, and we show the influence
of these regimes on the precipitation. We find that the relationship between
forecast errors and skill scores is strongly influenced by the event
frequencies, which in turn depend on the precipitation regime. We find that
only when the event frequency of the two regimes is made similar by changing
the threshold, the relationship between the scores and relative errors is
similar. This suggests that a comparison between two forecast precipitation
datasets should account for the difference (if any) in precipitation
regimes. |
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