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| Titel |
Bias correction and post-processing under climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Vannitsem |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 18, no. 6 ; Nr. 18, no. 6 (2011-12-02), S.911-924 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014005
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-18-911-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The statistical and dynamical properties of bias correction and linear
post-processing are investigated when the system under interest is affected
by model errors and is experiencing parameter modifications, mimicking the
potential impact of climate change. The analysis is first performed for
simple typical scalar systems, an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (O-U) and a
limit point bifurcation. It reveals system's specific (linear or non-linear)
dependences of biases and post-processing corrections as a function of
parameter modifications. A more realistic system is then investigated, a
low-order model of moist general circulation, incorporating several processes
of high relevance in the climate dynamics (radiative effects, cloud
feedbacks...), but still sufficiently simple to allow for an extensive
exploration of its dynamics. In this context, bias or post-processing
corrections also display complicate variations when the system experiences
temperature climate changes up to a few degrees. This precludes a
straightforward application of these corrections from one system's state to
another (as usually adopted for climate projections), and increases further
the uncertainty in evaluating the amplitudes of climate changes. |
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