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| Titel |
Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Ghil, P. Yiou, S. Hallegatte, B. D. Malamud, P. Naveau, A. Soloviev, P. Friederichs, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Kondrashov, V. Kossobokov, O. Mestre, C. Nicolis, H. W. Rust, P. Shebalin, M. Vrac, A. Witt, I. Zaliapin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 18, no. 3 ; Nr. 18, no. 3 (2011-05-18), S.295-350 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013919
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-18-295-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of
European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical
aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme
events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic
events, along with their prediction.
Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the
discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these
results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts. |
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